Just a quick note for those who follow my World of Warcraft blog, called Wild Family Adventures. I had planned to retire that blog, but changed my mind. This blog, the JadedWalker, is my primary blog site. Whenever there is a new post on the Warcraft blog, however, I'll add a link here. That way you don't have to check both.
There is a new post today:
Like I Never Left
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Saturday, August 24, 2013
A Fatalistic view of the 2014 San Diego Padres
A Fatalistic view of the 2014 San Diego Padres
Writing about writing can get a little boring, so I'm going to mix things up a bit and talk about another obsession of mine, and that's baseball. Since I live in the San Diego area, I have grown to love the usually hapless San Diego Padres team. We've lived here since 1999, but it was only in 2012 that we made the decision to become season ticket holders.
After two years as full season ticket holders, we have had to reconsider the number of baseball games we could physically get to as we look toward the 2014 season. We love to go to the games and we have the perfect seats for us. For our third year as season ticket holders, however, we decided to sign up for one of the half-season packages. Instead of 81 home games, we get 41 home games. We can keep the seats we have. One drawback we could have is that we may have to sit somewhere other than our own seats for the opening day game (since a full season ticket holder might get that seat for opening day). We also only get to go to Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday games, and while that shouldn't be a problem, it's possible that due to scheduling we could miss a series now and then. All in all, though, we should still get to see at least as many games as we have in the past, for about half the price, although we will have fewer tickets to give to friends.
As for the team itself, the Padres have imploded this season after a promising start. With a record of 57-70, 13 games below .500, the team has a worse record this season than last season (10 games below .500). Just to match last season, the Padres would have to go 19-16 the rest of the way. That doesn't look remotely possible. I think the current team goal is to stay out of last place. The Giants are in last place right now, but only a half game behind us at 56-70.
Looking to next year, the team is mostly made up of young players who the team hopes will improve. Most of our players will be back, so next year's lineup will look much like this years. Given the Padres history, I am taking a fatalistic approach - I love the Padres, but I don't really expect them to win. From that standpoint, here are my predictions for the Padres 2014 lineup (I'll handicap the pitchers later).
Batting 1st: Everth Cabrera (SS) is serving a 50 game suspension for using PEDs (performance enhancing drugs). He was leading the league is stolen bases and was having the best season of his career until his suspension. In 2014, will he be like 2013, or will he revert to his pre-PED output? Prediction: Cabrera will fall from grace, dropping his OBP from .355 to under .330 and slipping back to being a decent but not exceptional shortstop. He'll still steal bases, but he'll struggle to get on base enough win any more stolen base titles.
Batting 2nd: Chase Headley (3B) had a phenomenal year in 2012, hitting 31 homeruns and leading the National league with 115 RBIs. A major disappointment in 2013, he's hit only 8 HRs and driven in just 35. Prediction: He's better than the awful season he's having now, but I don't think he'll ever be the power hitter the team needs, having never hit more than 12 homers in a season before 2012. Chase has good speed and should recover his ability to draw walks, so he could be a decent #2 hitter. If he fails to get on base enough, he could fall as far as 6th or 7th in the lineup. 2013 was going to be the year he earned a big contract, but that has evaporated. He's also going to be 31 years old in 2014, on the cusp of ... well, we'll have to see.
Batting 3rd: Yonder Alonso (1B) wins this spot by default. He's a young 26, and has hit well in his first two years with the club. Alonso can hit for average (.290 recently), but managed only 9 and 6 homers in those years. Not good for a #3 hitter. It's the best the team has, though. Prediction: His batting average will drop as he tries to build up his power numbers, say in the .260-.270 range, but he'll still fall short of 15 HRs.
Batting 4th: Carlos Quentin (LF) is an excellent slugger with a long history if injuries. The Padres paid him a lot of money and we're stuck with him for at least a couple more years. For five straight years he hit more than 20 homers a season (with other teams), but then he joined the Padres in 2012 and his HR totals dropped to 16 and 13. Quentin is hurt and is probably out for the season after playing only 82 games. Prediction: The Padres will have to eat his contract (who would trade for him with his injury history?) even though he he'll be hurt more often than he can play.
Batting 5th: Jedd Gyorko (2B) is the likely #4 hitter when Quentin can't play, but is slated for the five spot in 2014. Gyorko's a rookie, in his first season in the majors, and he has impressed us all with his superb play at secondbase and his level of maturity. He is second on the team in HRs (16) and his .254 batting average should improve over time. Prediction: My favorite player, the 24 year old should have a bright future, although the Padres will find a way to lose him to some other team.
Batting 6th: Nick Hundley is a fine catcher with otherwise modest talents. He's hit a career high 10 homers this season so far, though he is destined to be the backup to 24 year old Yasmani Grandal. Grandal is out for season with injuries and is also a suspended PED user. He hit .297 in 2012 over 60 games, but only .216 in 28 games in 2013. Prediction: Grandal will be the starting catcher in 2014, assuming he's healthy, but his success in college and his rapid rise from the low minors in 2010 to the major leagues in just two years is suspect. Who knows if he has any true talent that isn't PED boosted.
The rest of the lineup is a hodgepodge that changes with every game. The contenders for the last two spots in the lineup are:
Will Venable (OF) is having a career year, if one considers a .263 batting average, 17 homers, and 14 steals to be a "career" year. Asked to bat in the #1 spot with Cabrera suspended, he is getting a lot more at bats than usual. Under normal circumstances the 30 year old is platooned against lefty pitchers. He will be pushed by rookie Jaff Decker (yes, that's spelled correctly) who is getting a good look, though the 23 year old is hitting only .174 in 11 games so far. Prediction: Back to platooning in 2014 for Venable, back to the minor leagues for Decker.
Chris Denorfia (OF) is a solid, competent player who gets his 100-120 games each season. He has a little pop in his bat, some speed on the bases, and steady play. He'll also be turning 33 in 2014.
Alexi Amarista (OF, SS) is a versatile player still young enough (24) to make a future impact, but is projected more as a utility player than a regular with his .243 career batting average and low stolen base totals despite good speed. Prediction: Amarista is young enough and cheap enough and versatile enough to hold on to, but see Logan Forsythe below.
Logan Forsythe (multiple positions) falls into the same Amarista/Venable camp, though he is already 26. Prediction: Either Forsythe or Amarista will be traded; they won't keep both utility players. Jesus Guzman and Kyle Blanks are others wannabes who have yet to show they can hold a spot on the team.
Then there is Cameron Maybin (OF) who has shown glimpses that he can be a fine centerfielder with all the physical skills of a potential superstar: power, speed, strong arm, etc. Staked to a large contract, he's already played in parts of seven seasons though he has yet to see his 27th birthday. The clock is ticking, though, as he fights through injury after injury (out for the season after just 14 games). He's never had a break out season, has never hit more than 9 HRs, and never batted over .264 (.243 career). Yet, he is apparently "still" the great hope of for the team. Prediction: Even when healthy, he doesn't seem to be able to harness all that physical talent. Maybin will always be a "what he could have been" player.
So, there's our 2014 San Diego Padres hitters.
PS - We also rooted for a local little league team in Eastlake who made it to the Little League World Series, and came just one game short of winning the national title.
Writing about writing can get a little boring, so I'm going to mix things up a bit and talk about another obsession of mine, and that's baseball. Since I live in the San Diego area, I have grown to love the usually hapless San Diego Padres team. We've lived here since 1999, but it was only in 2012 that we made the decision to become season ticket holders.
After two years as full season ticket holders, we have had to reconsider the number of baseball games we could physically get to as we look toward the 2014 season. We love to go to the games and we have the perfect seats for us. For our third year as season ticket holders, however, we decided to sign up for one of the half-season packages. Instead of 81 home games, we get 41 home games. We can keep the seats we have. One drawback we could have is that we may have to sit somewhere other than our own seats for the opening day game (since a full season ticket holder might get that seat for opening day). We also only get to go to Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday games, and while that shouldn't be a problem, it's possible that due to scheduling we could miss a series now and then. All in all, though, we should still get to see at least as many games as we have in the past, for about half the price, although we will have fewer tickets to give to friends.
As for the team itself, the Padres have imploded this season after a promising start. With a record of 57-70, 13 games below .500, the team has a worse record this season than last season (10 games below .500). Just to match last season, the Padres would have to go 19-16 the rest of the way. That doesn't look remotely possible. I think the current team goal is to stay out of last place. The Giants are in last place right now, but only a half game behind us at 56-70.
Looking to next year, the team is mostly made up of young players who the team hopes will improve. Most of our players will be back, so next year's lineup will look much like this years. Given the Padres history, I am taking a fatalistic approach - I love the Padres, but I don't really expect them to win. From that standpoint, here are my predictions for the Padres 2014 lineup (I'll handicap the pitchers later).
Batting 1st: Everth Cabrera (SS) is serving a 50 game suspension for using PEDs (performance enhancing drugs). He was leading the league is stolen bases and was having the best season of his career until his suspension. In 2014, will he be like 2013, or will he revert to his pre-PED output? Prediction: Cabrera will fall from grace, dropping his OBP from .355 to under .330 and slipping back to being a decent but not exceptional shortstop. He'll still steal bases, but he'll struggle to get on base enough win any more stolen base titles.
Batting 2nd: Chase Headley (3B) had a phenomenal year in 2012, hitting 31 homeruns and leading the National league with 115 RBIs. A major disappointment in 2013, he's hit only 8 HRs and driven in just 35. Prediction: He's better than the awful season he's having now, but I don't think he'll ever be the power hitter the team needs, having never hit more than 12 homers in a season before 2012. Chase has good speed and should recover his ability to draw walks, so he could be a decent #2 hitter. If he fails to get on base enough, he could fall as far as 6th or 7th in the lineup. 2013 was going to be the year he earned a big contract, but that has evaporated. He's also going to be 31 years old in 2014, on the cusp of ... well, we'll have to see.
Batting 3rd: Yonder Alonso (1B) wins this spot by default. He's a young 26, and has hit well in his first two years with the club. Alonso can hit for average (.290 recently), but managed only 9 and 6 homers in those years. Not good for a #3 hitter. It's the best the team has, though. Prediction: His batting average will drop as he tries to build up his power numbers, say in the .260-.270 range, but he'll still fall short of 15 HRs.
Batting 4th: Carlos Quentin (LF) is an excellent slugger with a long history if injuries. The Padres paid him a lot of money and we're stuck with him for at least a couple more years. For five straight years he hit more than 20 homers a season (with other teams), but then he joined the Padres in 2012 and his HR totals dropped to 16 and 13. Quentin is hurt and is probably out for the season after playing only 82 games. Prediction: The Padres will have to eat his contract (who would trade for him with his injury history?) even though he he'll be hurt more often than he can play.
Batting 5th: Jedd Gyorko (2B) is the likely #4 hitter when Quentin can't play, but is slated for the five spot in 2014. Gyorko's a rookie, in his first season in the majors, and he has impressed us all with his superb play at secondbase and his level of maturity. He is second on the team in HRs (16) and his .254 batting average should improve over time. Prediction: My favorite player, the 24 year old should have a bright future, although the Padres will find a way to lose him to some other team.
Batting 6th: Nick Hundley is a fine catcher with otherwise modest talents. He's hit a career high 10 homers this season so far, though he is destined to be the backup to 24 year old Yasmani Grandal. Grandal is out for season with injuries and is also a suspended PED user. He hit .297 in 2012 over 60 games, but only .216 in 28 games in 2013. Prediction: Grandal will be the starting catcher in 2014, assuming he's healthy, but his success in college and his rapid rise from the low minors in 2010 to the major leagues in just two years is suspect. Who knows if he has any true talent that isn't PED boosted.
The rest of the lineup is a hodgepodge that changes with every game. The contenders for the last two spots in the lineup are:
Will Venable (OF) is having a career year, if one considers a .263 batting average, 17 homers, and 14 steals to be a "career" year. Asked to bat in the #1 spot with Cabrera suspended, he is getting a lot more at bats than usual. Under normal circumstances the 30 year old is platooned against lefty pitchers. He will be pushed by rookie Jaff Decker (yes, that's spelled correctly) who is getting a good look, though the 23 year old is hitting only .174 in 11 games so far. Prediction: Back to platooning in 2014 for Venable, back to the minor leagues for Decker.
Chris Denorfia (OF) is a solid, competent player who gets his 100-120 games each season. He has a little pop in his bat, some speed on the bases, and steady play. He'll also be turning 33 in 2014.
Alexi Amarista (OF, SS) is a versatile player still young enough (24) to make a future impact, but is projected more as a utility player than a regular with his .243 career batting average and low stolen base totals despite good speed. Prediction: Amarista is young enough and cheap enough and versatile enough to hold on to, but see Logan Forsythe below.
Logan Forsythe (multiple positions) falls into the same Amarista/Venable camp, though he is already 26. Prediction: Either Forsythe or Amarista will be traded; they won't keep both utility players. Jesus Guzman and Kyle Blanks are others wannabes who have yet to show they can hold a spot on the team.
Then there is Cameron Maybin (OF) who has shown glimpses that he can be a fine centerfielder with all the physical skills of a potential superstar: power, speed, strong arm, etc. Staked to a large contract, he's already played in parts of seven seasons though he has yet to see his 27th birthday. The clock is ticking, though, as he fights through injury after injury (out for the season after just 14 games). He's never had a break out season, has never hit more than 9 HRs, and never batted over .264 (.243 career). Yet, he is apparently "still" the great hope of for the team. Prediction: Even when healthy, he doesn't seem to be able to harness all that physical talent. Maybin will always be a "what he could have been" player.
So, there's our 2014 San Diego Padres hitters.
PS - We also rooted for a local little league team in Eastlake who made it to the Little League World Series, and came just one game short of winning the national title.
Saturday, August 3, 2013
Forward and Back
Saturday (3 Aug 2013) - Forward and Back
Well, I missed my writer's group meeting on Thursday, 1 August. The group had to change the room where they met (there was a dinner meeting of a dentist's group in the room when I got to the library). I didn't get the word. That's the second meeting I've missed due to miscommunication. Or lack of communication. Partly my fault, since I didn't get any contact information from the group during the last meeting, but it would have been nice to have been contacted about the change. The library has a monthly calendar, too, but they hadn't posted the August schedule yet. I should have checked online. However, when I did remember to do that (after driving back home) the schedule showed that the writer's group was meeting on 8 August and 22 August instead of 1 and 15 August (the first and third Thursdays of the month). Since they actually did meet on 1 August, I'm pretty confused. I now have contact information from one of the members and sent an email to the group leader asking for clarification of the meeting schedule.
The "Majik of Spark" took a step forward and a couple of steps back this week. I did a run through of the novel specifically to reset the chapter breaks along more natural lines than the forced method I used when writing them. The result is that I expanded the over-sized original 12 chapters to a more fitting 25 chapters. I like the results.
A second change is going to require some additional work. I am expanding the story by five chapters. I wavered back and forth about where the ending to the novel should be, worried that I would keep adding to it and spilling more of the story into what should be the second book. So, I somewhat arbitrarily cut it off at a convenient stopping point, leaving the troupe of adventurers poised for new challenges at a relatively safe place. Then I started working on the second book.
It didn't take long for me to realize that there was still too much left hanging in Spark that would have to be explained in the second book, and things were just not matching up the way I wanted them to. No amount of stitching things together was working. I had simply ended the book prematurely. Now, I know that sounds like I can't finish the thing and will endlessly add to it. No. The five chapters I am adding each have very specific goals. I know exactly where I want all the various characters to be, and the situation I will leave them in, and these new chapters get them there. Three of the five chapters are in pretty good shape already. I'm not worried about the ending anymore.
Now comes the "step back" part. While I was walking through the book and setting proper chapter breaks, I came across a rather nasty incongruity. It didn't look hard to fix at first, and I tinkered at correcting it for a couple of days. Tinkering was not going to be enough, though. Without going into too much detail, I wrote a whole chapter that was based on information that I had not introduced into the story yet. There are a lot of strings attached to that chapter, so I can't simply move it, nor will it work by trying to introduce that information earlier. I will have to follow several story line threads both forward and back to repair that damage, and it will take some time to do it right.
Well, I missed my writer's group meeting on Thursday, 1 August. The group had to change the room where they met (there was a dinner meeting of a dentist's group in the room when I got to the library). I didn't get the word. That's the second meeting I've missed due to miscommunication. Or lack of communication. Partly my fault, since I didn't get any contact information from the group during the last meeting, but it would have been nice to have been contacted about the change. The library has a monthly calendar, too, but they hadn't posted the August schedule yet. I should have checked online. However, when I did remember to do that (after driving back home) the schedule showed that the writer's group was meeting on 8 August and 22 August instead of 1 and 15 August (the first and third Thursdays of the month). Since they actually did meet on 1 August, I'm pretty confused. I now have contact information from one of the members and sent an email to the group leader asking for clarification of the meeting schedule.
The "Majik of Spark" took a step forward and a couple of steps back this week. I did a run through of the novel specifically to reset the chapter breaks along more natural lines than the forced method I used when writing them. The result is that I expanded the over-sized original 12 chapters to a more fitting 25 chapters. I like the results.
A second change is going to require some additional work. I am expanding the story by five chapters. I wavered back and forth about where the ending to the novel should be, worried that I would keep adding to it and spilling more of the story into what should be the second book. So, I somewhat arbitrarily cut it off at a convenient stopping point, leaving the troupe of adventurers poised for new challenges at a relatively safe place. Then I started working on the second book.
It didn't take long for me to realize that there was still too much left hanging in Spark that would have to be explained in the second book, and things were just not matching up the way I wanted them to. No amount of stitching things together was working. I had simply ended the book prematurely. Now, I know that sounds like I can't finish the thing and will endlessly add to it. No. The five chapters I am adding each have very specific goals. I know exactly where I want all the various characters to be, and the situation I will leave them in, and these new chapters get them there. Three of the five chapters are in pretty good shape already. I'm not worried about the ending anymore.
Now comes the "step back" part. While I was walking through the book and setting proper chapter breaks, I came across a rather nasty incongruity. It didn't look hard to fix at first, and I tinkered at correcting it for a couple of days. Tinkering was not going to be enough, though. Without going into too much detail, I wrote a whole chapter that was based on information that I had not introduced into the story yet. There are a lot of strings attached to that chapter, so I can't simply move it, nor will it work by trying to introduce that information earlier. I will have to follow several story line threads both forward and back to repair that damage, and it will take some time to do it right.
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